diff --git a/src/process/capture/ProcessCaptureLifecycle.ts b/src/process/capture/ProcessCaptureLifecycle.ts
index ec31113ee..2d2fcec00 100644
--- a/src/process/capture/ProcessCaptureLifecycle.ts
+++ b/src/process/capture/ProcessCaptureLifecycle.ts
@@ -662,6 +662,7 @@ export const observeSettlement = async (
   }
   const started = Date.now();
   let consecutiveEmpty = 0;
+  let sawLive = false;
   let deadlineReached = false;
   while (!deadlineReached) {
     onLiveProgress?.();
@@ -685,13 +686,20 @@ export const observeSettlement = async (
         recordEvent("lifecycle", 1);
         return { state: "quiesced", elapsed_ms: Date.now() - started };
       }
-    } else consecutiveEmpty = 0;
+    } else {
+      consecutiveEmpty = 0;
+      sawLive = true;
+    }
     deadlineReached = Date.now() - started >= settleMs;
     if (deadlineReached) break;
     await delay(50, undefined, { signal });
   }
   recordEvent("lifecycle", 1);
-  return { state: "alive_at_deadline", elapsed_ms: Date.now() - started };
+  // A lone empty observation proves neither liveness nor quiescence; only an
+  // observed live member justifies alive_at_deadline.
+  return sawLive
+    ? { state: "alive_at_deadline", elapsed_ms: Date.now() - started }
+    : { state: "unverifiable", elapsed_ms: Date.now() - started };
 };
 
 /** Name why an attempt is unverified; a blank message never reaches the capture schema. */
diff --git a/tests/boundary/process/processSettlementDeadline.test.ts b/tests/boundary/process/processSettlementDeadline.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..83c748366
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/boundary/process/processSettlementDeadline.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+import { spawn } from "node:child_process";
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import { observeSettlement } from "../../../src/process/capture/ProcessCaptureLifecycle.js";
+import { observeOwnedProcessGroups } from "../../../src/process/ProcessOwnershipObservation.js";
+
+/** Process group id that cannot exist on any supported host. */
+const ABSENT_GROUP_ID = 4_294_967_295;
+
+const observeGroup = async (groupId: number) =>
+  observeOwnedProcessGroups("settlement-deadline-probe", [groupId]);
+
+describe("settlement deadline classification", () => {
+  it("does not report a single empty observation as alive_at_deadline", async () => {
+    expect(
+      (await observeGroup(ABSENT_GROUP_ID)).get(ABSENT_GROUP_ID)?.state,
+    ).toBe("empty");
+
+    const settlement = await observeSettlement(
+      "settlement-single-empty",
+      [ABSENT_GROUP_ID],
+      0,
+      () => undefined,
+      "linux",
+    );
+    expect(settlement.state).toBe("unverifiable");
+  });
+
+  it("still reports observed liveness as alive_at_deadline", async () => {
+    const runId = "settlement-live-group";
+    // A detached child leads its own process group and carries the run token,
+    // so the group observes as a genuinely owned live member.
+    const child = spawn("sleep", ["30"], {
+      detached: true,
+      stdio: "ignore",
+      env: { ...process.env, REA_PROCESS_RUN_ID: runId },
+    });
+    child.unref();
+    try {
+      // Wait until the child is actually listed before asserting on it.
+      const started = Date.now();
+      while (
+        (await observeOwnedProcessGroups(runId, [child.pid!])).get(child.pid!)
+          ?.state !== "alive"
+      ) {
+        if (Date.now() - started > 5_000)
+          throw new Error("live fixture group never observed as alive");
+        await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, 50));
+      }
+
+      const settlement = await observeSettlement(
+        runId,
+        [child.pid!],
+        0,
+        () => undefined,
+        "linux",
+      );
+      expect(settlement.state).toBe("alive_at_deadline");
+    } finally {
+      child.kill("SIGKILL");
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("still reports two consecutive empty observations as quiesced", async () => {
+    const settlement = await observeSettlement(
+      "settlement-two-empty",
+      [ABSENT_GROUP_ID],
+      1_000,
+      () => undefined,
+      "linux",
+    );
+    expect(settlement.state).toBe("quiesced");
+  });
+});